Paying for the unpayable; paying for a future
Comparing French pensions with the climate
If there’s one thing that unites progressives, it’s the apparent taking away of the justifiably earned rights of the working person. And that’s what’s happening in France, as Emanuel Macron uses constitutional sophistry to push through his villainous plan to make France’s workers miserable for an extra two years before retirement.
But why the hell am I writing about this when I should be sticking to climate communications?
There are two answers. First, let’s go back to a holiday that I took back in 2005 to Southeast Asia. I visited Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore and Vietnam. At the time I was a journalist, coming to terms with how to frame and talk about what we then knew of the rise of China, and how it was changing the world. On that trip – and especially in a bar watching Hanoi’s restless street life – I saw five utterly different expressions of development that complemented what we were seeing in China.
Most vividly, I sat in that Hanoi bar thinking that Western Europe could no longer eat a free lunch. There was a determination in the way people worked, looked for openings, found a way to get by. I had jet lag and it was very late, yet the people still swarmed around getting things done.
It made me think of the Northeast of England, the beautiful industrial powerhouse that I call home. I was at school there in the 1980s, just outside Middlesbrough, and I saw the working assumptions of a region collapse as its industrial base collapsed: coal, steel, shipbuilding. I went to school with kids that expected to get their fathers’ steel jobs for life; many have now spent more adult years without a job than with one. I remember playing rugby against a team from Shildon in County Durham, which looked like a bomb had hit it. Whole villages and communities were hollowed out, from the coal fields of southern Northumberland to the steel mills of Middlesbrough. I learned that when economies turn they do so brutally and swiftly.
Governments can and maybe should cushion this blow – Margaret Thatcher was not known for this in the 1980s. But even more so, and giving some credit to Mrs Thatcher, they should understand the currents that run beneath these changes, be realistic and find a way to use these winds to their advantage.
This is not happening in France. Fully 14.5% of its GDP is spent paying for pensions and the system is nearing bankruptcy. Here in Italy where I now live it is a shade under 16%. Saying this is unsustainable is not making a political statement; it’s realism. Not to act now is to give these problems to your children. In France and Italy they already have to deal with a hamster wheel of temporary jobs and unemployment, so fighting to keep the gold-plated sanctity of ‘permanent jobs’ is not the answer. The workers in Hanoi are not going to pay for your retirements.
I see this directly here in Italy, which has a real insider/outsider economy. This was great in the booming years between the 60s and the early 90s, when the strength of Italy’s Serie A football league was a direct result of its economic virility. In 1986 it overtook Britain to have the world’s 6th biggest economy. This was a time of aspiration and growing security, Fiats for all and a washing machine for Nonna. But although this economic virility is firmly in the past, the interests that became entrenched back then continue to protect their privilege now. The more Italy does this the more it screws the younger of today (anybody under 40 tbh) and absolutely screws the Italians of tomorrow. 25% of young women and 22% of young men are already unemployed.
And this is all directly relevant to the climate. Failing to be realistic about the current situation is not going to allow you to wish a difficult choice away. Progressives who hate Mr Macron’s pension plan are also quick to demand climate action. Being realistic means being realistic about everything, including the bits that make you uncomfortable. Forget your mood affiliation and look at the evidence.
I said there was a second answer, so here it is and it’s better news that the bit above. The good news is that being realistic about the need for climate action is consistent with being optimistic and having a plan. There’s a whole new economy to be jumped on, from clean energy production and storage through to new industrial processes and more productive agriculture. Europe, European companies and European workers could be at the forefront. Seize the day!
But my warning is that a European fixation on protecting the benefits accrued in earlier, easier times means delays and hurdles for the shift to a clean energy economy. Europe has an opportunity to pay for something like the lifestyle it wants, but not by trying to protect benefits that most of its citizens will never get to enjoy. The longer it holds on to what is no longer realistic, the more it squanders this opportunity. It should see the clean energy revolution from the current position of weakness, but unfortunately it’s holding on to benefits for its 60-pluses.
That’s not good. Good luck Mr Macron.
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I’m a journalist, author and think-tank-comms worker. I’ve lived and worked all over the world, and I’m currently in Italy. My free substack is aimed at unpicking a few thoughts about the world of environmental actions/communications/journalism, but I’ll branch out more broadly - probably looking at how to understand countries and places by getting out and walking around them. Get in touch at nicholaswalton99-at-gmail.com, or on Twitter @npw99.